Sam
Diplomat
Posts:110
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| 08 Dec 2007 4:28 PM |
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Which color do you think has the highest chance of winning? I think Blue. No other information is given out.
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2¢ is my son so we have the same email. Sorry for any confusion. |
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The Player
Strategist
Posts:38
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| 09 Dec 2007 4:29 AM |
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They are randomly placed. Here is the total armies:
Blue: 78
Red: 72
Green: 63
Yellow: 61
Black: 64
Brown: 55
Given nothing else, Blue has a slight advantage over Red and Green. There is no reason that others can't win, so this is just a guess based on current map. Everyone can always turn the game around and go for winning.
Poor Brown ... |
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Europa
Diplomat
Posts:170
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| 10 Dec 2007 11:08 AM |
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First let us just be clear, this would never happen in a real game. Now that the obvious is out of the way, I would need to know what the turn order is. Who goes first and who goes last has a real impact on the outcome of Risk games. Given the right turn order, and a good strategy, Blue can be defeated.
Next I like to look at concentrations of force and where thos concentrations are in relation to the opponents and the geography. Blue looks solid in North America, which is a great place to call home and if he doesn't go near the end of the turn order can swing his Southern European armies towards Iceland and hopefullly take out the threat there.
I don't like Red's chances in this game despite being number 2 on the list of total armies. His only hope is to swing his Western US armies up towards Alaska and connect with his Alaska/Kamchatka troops, the only two territories on the board that have a connected empire other than Brown in the Ukraine and Afghanistan. Brown suffers not only from a lack of armies, but placement as well. Brown's connected territories do it no good since it is next to a hornet's nest in Europe and is outnumbered everywhere except Asia. This may be the best strategy for Brown, take your armies and go hide in Asia, just grow slowly and hope no one notices you. Eventually you cna turn in cards and hopefully come back near the end game and take home the victory. As I said before, turn order here is very important. If Brown goes last, he has no hope. If he goes first or second, he has a real chance. |
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Grant Blackburn |
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Sam
Diplomat
Posts:110
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| 11 Dec 2007 1:28 AM |
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| Okay, how about simoultaneous turn order? This is round one and in simoultaneous turns each round only one turn per person and everyone has to take their turn before the round ends. The last person to end their turn cannot start till one other person takes their turn to avoid spreading troops and then reinforcing. |
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2¢ is my son so we have the same email. Sorry for any confusion. |
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Europa
Diplomat
Posts:170
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| 11 Dec 2007 4:05 PM |
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| I am really curious as to where you got this from. It doesn't really make much sense in normal Risk and besides being a mental exercise I can't see the value of it. Real random placements may look similar to this, but the odds of two countries of the same color not touching through out the entire board (save two)with a near even distribution of territories in each continent and then for them to have as many armies as they do in each one . . . Anyway, a simultaneous turn order like they have in RISK II on the computer is very different from this and in either option I think Blue will win based on numbers and position. I think an evaluation of each position in the game using a turn order or simultaneous concept is a neat little exercise and it might be fun to play this out, but I think you need to be very vwery clear about the rules of the game you are going to follow and what the turn order is going to be. The Simultaneous turn order you mentioned doesn't make sense to me. |
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Grant Blackburn |
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Sam
Diplomat
Posts:110
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| 11 Dec 2007 8:32 PM |
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| The Simoultaneous order in Grand Strategy and freestyle in conquer club. How I got it is i put the armies depending on how many letters in the territories name. |
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2¢ is my son so we have the same email. Sorry for any confusion. |
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Europa
Diplomat
Posts:170
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| 13 Dec 2007 9:55 PM |
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| This is tough, how does one respond in a random game with random turn order? Game theory would ask what what are the likely decisions the opponents would make but with the situation so random, it is hard to tell. I think having more realistic scenarios or at least well defined parameters makes this a more useful exercise. Please think about what you want to accomplish with your scenario and then give the set-up appropriately. I think this scenario has some uses, but it is hard to respond intelligently if we don't what to expect. In a real game we would act based on anumber of factors that are present but we don't know what those factors are here so it becomes hard to think about in those terms. Does this make sense? |
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Grant Blackburn |
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Sam
Diplomat
Posts:110
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| 13 Dec 2007 10:05 PM |
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| Ok. I'll take your advice. Maybe I should make Brown go first then Yellow, Green ,Black,Red then Blue to keep things fair. |
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2¢ is my son so we have the same email. Sorry for any confusion. |
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2¢
Tactician
Posts:5
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| 14 Dec 2007 12:29 AM |
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| Dang, this game is STALEMATE. |
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Just my two cents. |
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Europa
Diplomat
Posts:170
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| 14 Dec 2007 3:22 PM |
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| Thanks. I will look at it from that point of view and get back to you. Giving Brown the option to go first will certainly even out the playing field given Blue's numbers advantage so it will be interesting to the analysis. Let me spend some time working it out a little and then I can give you amore intelligent answer. Just off the top without spending a lot of time thinking about it, it looks to me like Yellow will lose. |
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Grant Blackburn |
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Sam
Diplomat
Posts:110
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| 17 Dec 2007 10:46 PM |
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| Turn Order:1st |
Brown |
| 2nd |
Yellow |
| 3rd |
Green |
| 4th |
Black |
| 5th |
Red |
| 6th |
Blue |
Just to make it easy for everyone to see. |
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2¢ is my son so we have the same email. Sorry for any confusion. |
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Sam
Diplomat
Posts:110
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| 17 Dec 2007 10:46 PM |
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| Thinking clearly, Blue will try to get NA. Red looks good and quite solid at SA. Black is so far creeping into Europe as far as the map. Beacuse of this, Yellow can dominate Australia. Green and Brown are trying to sit and gain troops. Unless one of them is much stronger after all the fuss, They will treaty. Green will slick into Africa as the treaty breaks. At the time Brown is unlikely to win, but has the deciding vote on who can win. |
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2¢ is my son so we have the same email. Sorry for any confusion. |
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Dan12
Diplomat
Posts:81
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| 18 Dec 2007 1:07 AM |
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Posted By Sam on 17 Dec 2007 10:46 PM
Thinking clearly, Blue will try to get NA. Red looks good and quite solid at SA. Black is so far creeping into Europe as far as the map. Beacuse of this, Yellow can dominate Australia. Green and Brown are trying to sit and gain troops. Unless one of them is much stronger after all the fuss, They will treaty. Green will slick into Africa as the treaty breaks. At the time Brown is unlikely to win, but has the deciding vote on who can win.
Are you serious, or are you pulling our legs 
The map looks really random. How can you say confidently that each colour is going for a continent. How is Red solid in SA? He has only one country. This map just doesnt make sense to me.
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Europa
Diplomat
Posts:170
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| 18 Dec 2007 11:24 AM |
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This is definitely a tough nut to crack. I think the map serves more as an intellectual expercise than a realistic scenario. I do think that Blue is more likely to try for North America given its large presense there. I think Green ought to go for South America myself with strong populations in Central America and North Africa. Yellow I think should try for Australia, but it is gonna be tough.
With a map like this any strategy is gonna be a shot in the dark, throw something against the wall and see if it sticks because the dice rolls will play a large factor here. |
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Grant Blackburn |
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Sam
Diplomat
Posts:110
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| 18 Dec 2007 12:16 PM |
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Posted By Dan12 on 18 Dec 2007 1:07 AM
Posted By Sam on 17 Dec 2007 10:46 PM
Thinking clearly, Blue will try to get NA. Red looks good and quite solid at SA. Black is so far creeping into Europe as far as the map. Beacuse of this, Yellow can dominate Australia. Green and Brown are trying to sit and gain troops. Unless one of them is much stronger after all the fuss, They will treaty. Green will slick into Africa as the treaty breaks. At the time Brown is unlikely to win, but has the deciding vote on who can win.
Are you serious, or are you pulling our legs
The map looks really random. How can you say confidently that each colour is going for a continent. How is Red solid in SA? He has only one country. This map just doesnt make sense to me.
To Dan: I am serious though because of massive troops in W Europe and Western US can swing to SA.
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2¢ is my son so we have the same email. Sorry for any confusion. |
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