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Subject: Question about probability, failed attack

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ellipi

Tactician
Posts:1

10 Jul 2009 2:17 AM
So I'm stunned and flabbergasted. I just lost a battle that I should have dominated. I had 19 armies in Central America and the plan was to defeat 6 armies spread over 6 territories in South America and 2 in Africa (1 defending each). Essentially I think it was 14 (?) rolls of 3 vs. 1, 1 intense roll of 2 vs.1 and a final epic roll of one sad little warrior against another sad little warrior in which I rolled a 5 and he rolled a 5. I lost a battle of 19 troops against 6. Wha? Really? /rant How likely would this happen? I'm too lazy to figure it out exactly but I'm guessing around 2%. Has anything similar happened to anybody else? i'm truly floored right now. It's like betting on the worst horse, which has a cracked hoof, a broken spirit and a giant jockey and winning, except I'm the track owner taking the bet.

Ehsan Honary User is Offline

Site Admin
King

King
Posts:268

10 Jul 2009 2:50 AM
I feel your pain. Seriously! It can be quite heart breaking especially when you were on your way to victory. But it does happen, it is rare, but that's why it is called Risk and only those who can handle such set backs can go on to win time and time again. It is a good teacher, because it forces you to think about worst case scenarios all the time and you automatically prepare for the worst or at least calculate it in your moves. I also think it is what makes Risk so exciting. A new player can get an upper hand with good dice while a good player who had bad dice may simply become more calculating or cautious both of which will help to make the game more balanced and interesting. Although Risk probabilities are independent, you may take pleasure in knowing that the worst is over and at least this phenomenon may not happen to you for a while. I hope you feel better now :-) Good luck.

Ehsan Honary

RedzoneRacer User is Offline

Tactician
Posts:2

15 Sep 2009 12:14 PM
Youch. I have had multiple ccasions of losing 5 to 1 battles, though. I feel your pain.

Matt 20 1

Strategist
Posts:10

25 Sep 2009 7:17 AM
Ouch. I know how you feel. Once my brother rolled 8 sixes in a row, it was like 14 on 2, (me attacking), and he lost 1 troop. Set me back BIG time. But I managed to win :)

RedzoneRacer User is Offline

Tactician
Posts:2

25 Sep 2009 2:08 PM
Yep. The thing about this game is, while the dice can really screw you up, if you use diplomaccy, strategy, and tactics well, you can overcome that force and win anyway.

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