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Hello The Total Diplomacy Forum!

I'm Belisarius, and my love of Risk is quite strong. I have been playing for five years now, and have never gotten tired of it. I would just like to say a huge thank you to Dr. Ehsan Honary for both his book (which I have and enjoy beyond words) and this site, which I view quite frequently.

In any case, at my High School I have started a Risk Club, where every Monday people come and play Risk, Simple as that. We play until we have to go, and then we record where our pieces are on a Risk Map paper, and pick up where we left off next Monday. Although we only had one game going on for our last (and first) meeting, with the exception of next week and exams, I have decided that, since I have the information for a real scenario anyways, I should post each game at where we left off and have people discuss what they would do in any player's position. Then when we find the outcome of the game, I can report back on who won and why. This not only will be fun for me, but this will also allow others to see great examples of Risk played on a Board, where Negotiations can be quite intense.

So, to start off, I have our first game from last meeting. I am playing in this game, but I won't reveal who I am just yet... But in any case!:

This is where we left off. At the start of the game (besides the first turn where everyone fought for their own continent) Red was in South America, Black was in North America, Blue was in Europe, White was in Africa, Green was in Australia and Southern Asia, and Yellow had a big chunk of Territories in Asia. A weakened and spread out Yellow was eliminated on the second round by a joint effort between Green and Black, and finished off by Blue (who got Yellow's card). Blue made a treaty with Black on the Iceland-Greenland border, a treaty with White on the borders of lower Europe and upper Africa, and a Non-aggression statement (which in our local terms is like a pre-treaty) On Ukraine to Asia with Green. Green spent his time slowly expanding through Asia, while Black built up his forces, collecting cards by taking Asian territories. Red began a War with White for Africa, and after slowly destroying Whites counter attacks, took Africa last turn, he then cashed the cards he got for 8 battalions. It is now Black's turn, and he has already put down his reinforcements. The next person who turns in a set will get 10 battalions, and after that the increments will increase by 5.

 The Player's Bios are as follows (and in order of turns):

Black - 3 Cards, No combo - The Black player is an experienced and honest (or perhaps blunt is a better word). He sometimes active (and indeed, quite forceful) in world discussions if it involves himself, but otherwise he doesn't like or encourage negotiations. He is quite afraid of people ganging up on him. He seems to be quite defensive and reserved, but it is obvious that he is planning on making a big move sometime soon. If you've read the Total Diplomacy, you can classify him as a Reserved Expansionist, if that makes sense.

Green - 3 Cards with combo - The Green player is not that experienced, and still at times as problems with the rules of the game. He is playing the Classic "Australia expansion" move, using Australia as a back base and slowly going through to conquer Asia, in which he is the dominant power. Because of his Amateur status, however, he is easily swayed in Negotiations, though he is smart enough to know when he is being used. You can classify him as a Semi-Expansionist Amateur.

Blue - 4 Cards with combo - The Blue player is highly experienced player and honest one in deals, though because of his long record and history of many wins, many view him with a bias. Because of this, sometimes his negotiations are disregarded and he is considered annoying. He has been playing Europe in a classic fashion, and has managed to keep himself secure and in a good position with his deals and treaties. He can be classified as a Conservative Negotiator.

Red - 3 Cards, no Combo - The Red player has a good bit more experience than the Black player, but a good deal less than the Blue player. He has a good head and is quite wise in discerning what it useful to him or not. He is a regular participant in Negotiations. After his attack on Africa, he is looking to hold both Africa and South America, and defend from what seems to be an inevitable attack on Venezuela from Central America, due to the arms race that has been going on there. He can be classified also as a Reserved Expansionist.

 So, put yourself in any of the player's spots. Who would you want to be? What would you do? Keep in mind their different personalities, experiences, and negotiation policies. I'd be happy to add any information that I can provide. Thanks! And let this be the first of many good Scenarios!

Belisarius, thank you very much for your kind comments. It gives me a warm feeling to know that my efforts have paid off and you are enjoying the book and the content so much. Your participation is certainly appreciated and I am sure other fans would greatly benefit from as well.

I quite like the ideas of posting your scenarios and look forward to see more of these in the future.

When you create the map, leave the links “Open in Risk Map Editor” so that others can open the map, edit by adding arrows, etc. and respond to your post visually.

This is a very well described scenario. I also like the profile of players which makes me associate with the moves much easier.

One thing you did not mention was the reinforcement rule. I assume that it is unlimited and connected since that is usually the best way to play Risk.

In this game, Red seems to be the weakest simply because of the latest expansion. This is indeed a time when a player is quite vulnerable.

Starting with Black’s turn, he is simply going to secure his position in Asia. He doesn’t have cards, so can’t expand as much. He will probably reinforce his Asian armies with about 9 armies that he receives of which some also go into the American continent.

Next, Green can cash in. Since he is an Amateur, he is unlikely to make big bold moves, like invading Africa. He probably wants to expand slowly and steadily. He may also decide to go for Asia thinking that he can get this continent and hold it (again something an amateur would do). If he cashes in he gets 10 + 3 + 2 = 15 against about 6 + 6? = 12 of extra armies in Asia. So it is a close call. If he cashes in, he knows that Blue might cash in as well though since they both have a non-aggression pact, Green may think that Blue will attack someone else. So Green should cash in and eliminate as many of Black’s armies and reposition all of his armies in borders (assuming unlimited connected fortification).

Next, Blue realises that he gets 15 if he cashes in. In total he will get 15+5+3 = 23. At this point Green probably has a total of about 28 and Red has 24. Again it is a close call to eliminate any player. He might be able to eliminate Red but won’t be able to withstand the backlash. However, if Black cashes in next, he can easily eliminate Red and expand without increasing his number of borders and still have plenty of armies to defend himself. This would be nightmare scenario for Blue.

It is difficult for Blue to negotiate any further. He already has a treaty with Black and a non-aggression pact with Green. Red would not make another deal or no one will fight. If Blue attacks Red’s Africa and then stops, this only makes it easier for others to attack Red and get the cards at the expense of Blue. Hence, Blue’s decision is the defining moment in the game as he is almost deciding the fate of it.

What should Blue do…?

It seems that Blue simply has to wait. He should not cash in and simply reinforce his borders and prepare for a possible invasion next turn. Meanwhile, Blue hopes that someone does a mistake. If Black cashed and invaded Red, Blue knows that he can at least get 20 for his cards next turn and retaliate against Black. Remember, from this point onwards, it is not about continents, but about the ability to eliminate another player and cash his cards. If you can do that one after the other as a chain, you can easily win the game. The trick is to get the timing right and wait for an opportunity which is what Blue is doing now.

To make this analysis complete, Red will simply reinforce his position when it is his turn. There isn’t anything else he can do at this point. He is the victim of his own expansion as one way or another Blue or Black will eliminate him.

And here it was. Let’s see what others think. Thanks again for submitting this scenario. It is a very well balanced point in the game just before the mayhem. Good work.

A question: How do you know if others have a combo or not. Do you see each other’s cards?

Well, it gives ME a warm feeling in my heart to know that my little scenario has won the admiration of such an esteemed and respected Risk player! I will be more than happy to add scenarios as they come along. The players at school were quite eager to hear what you had to say about their positions in the game. I'll read them out before we start again.

As for some of your questions, we are actually playing by a single connected fortification, rather than unlimited. Although I would agree with you in that it sometimes makes the game better (especially in the Lord of the Rings version, in which it is standard), we try to avoid letting people have what we call "perfect setups". If we had unlimited movements, as long as their "supply lines" are connected, they can set up their borders in a way that fits them perfectly. If you have only a single fortification, then it forces you not only to be more tactical, but it makes people think hard about their single move in a difficult situation. We find that that this in itself makes the game more challenging, and through that, fun.

As for the different players, it was easy to add their bios because I actually know them and have played games with them before. And for the Risk map, I think this link will work without me posting the actual map:

Risk Map: Risk-Club-1 --- Open Copy in Risk Map Editor

And last but not least, the reason I know of everyone's card combos is that as we were packing up, our "third party" person had to leave, so in order to start over again exactly as we were, we need to know the exact cards. Everyone else was informed of everyone else’s cards, however, just to keep it fair. However, this also means the information was spread around and could affect the game play. Normally, this never happens, and it likely it will not in future scenarios.

Although I can't argue with your speculations (which are quite well thought out) there are a few points I'd like to make:

The Green player, while amateur, has played enough to know that Asia is difficult to hold and is capable enough of a bold move like taking Africa. Although he has some amateur tendencies, such as his terrible tactics with keeping men behind his lines in Australia, which has made others view him as weak, he is has common sense.

The Black player, actually, has already turned in his Reinforcements as they are, so when we get back he will begin attacks right away. It is clear that he has no real interest in Asia, and it is also very likely, knowing him, that he will attack South America and hope to come out with few casualties. Because of this, Red will most likely become very diplomatic in hopes to deter Black's invasion, for Red seems to feel very threatened by Blacks large Force, and is quite convinced that he must do something soon, for he knows that if an arms buildup occurs, unless he keeps Africa, he will be out-resourced by Black.

The Blue Player, although surrounded by treaties has something tricky about his Non-aggression pact, or now was as looked upon as basically a treaty, with green. Blue has stated the the Non-agression pact was to be made from Ukraine to Ural and Afghanistan. This does not include the Middle East because Green had only recently taken the Middle East. It was beforehand used as an exchange country between Blue and White for Card farming, and when it was clear that White was going to be eliminated, Green took the Middle East for himself. This means that Blue, technically, can attack the Middle east, and from there, go through Green. It is unknown whether Green is aware of this. This should make you see what kind of player Blue is. However, remember that it is very unlike Blue to break treaties, because if his reputation for honesty was crushed, his preferred style of game play would be null. Whether or not he will do any of this has yet to be seen, however. It has also been implied that Blue will not attack Red (although he won't make an official treaty out of it) because he views Red as a bulwark against Black, which he seems to fear (and perhaps rightly so) and the most powerful on the Board. And just so you know, although Blue is not in the position to make many treaties, you can bet that from past experience he will be quite involved in all discussions and debate.

If have any more questions about the players or their rumored/speculated motives, please ask. But all in all, I would completely agree with you on this point: This is the point in the game where the final maneuvers are made before the all out war.

Sorry about the late reply. We had exams, so we canceled last Monday’s meeting, You may also have noticed that I did not post a second scenario. That is because this game did not end! The game has continued on and will (hopefully) be resolved next Monday. This is where we left off:

Risk Map: Risk-Club-1-cont --- Open Copy in Risk Map Editor

Yeah. WOW. I had no idea, especially based on what was said previously, that THIS would happen.

Starting from where we left off, Black did not attack anyone (even not gaining a card twice) and just sat there, but he did do something that shook the game to its roots: Black is now Allied with Red! After a couple "out of room talks", Black announced that Red was now his ally. However, Red has told me that it is actually just a treaty on the South - North American Borders, as opposed to a full out "Team Alliance". What Black thinks of it is in question for the time being, however. Green and Blue, not want to turn this into a 2 vs. 2 Death match, followed the current trend of stockpiling their Troops and trying to acquire cards. A small scale "war" in Africa between Green and Red, with Blue grabbing a territory every now and then for a card, took up most of the forefront of action. Red eventually was defeated by Green, who took Africa. Black, meanwhile, spent time taking Ural and Afghanistan for his card collection. All the while people have been turning in sets of cards, which is why the amounts of Armies right now are so high. The next person to turn in a set gets 40 Battalions. Blue then took the Middle East and strengthened it, and finally, Black used men from a card combo to plough through Asia and Australia, leaving us to Green’s turn, which is where we will come back.

What in the world will happen now!?