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Risk Map: Tipping-Point --- Open Copy in Risk Map Editor

For the above exercise, I tried to create a challenging situation that probably wouldn't happen in Risk or at least very rarely.  I did this with the thought that if we can over come something more difficult in practice than what we would face in the real game, then we will be better prepared to perform.  The above map is an amalgam of some common Risk experiences to create a challenging situation for the advanced Risk strategist.

Lets assume we are playing standard rules, with card trade-in value going up in normal fashion (we are now 10) and we are using  the new fortification rules (fortify one terr. to another terr. along a connected path).  Assume everyone at this stage has 2 cards in their hand. 

Turn order: Yellow first, then Red, Blue, Brown, Black and finally Green.  Assume no deals have been made yet except for some informal talks and obvious arms build up at the borders leading to the now unstable situation you see here.  With everyone at two cards and the trade value at 10, everyone knows something has to give.  

Pick a color and describe your next set of moves and what you diplomacy you will try to aid in your plans.   Lets bounce a few strategies and tactics off of each other and lets see where we stand.  Can you survive this tough fight?  Show us you can. 

The fact is that black would not worry about green because he only recieves 2 troops aturn. He would place armies in Middle East and threaten Blue and Brown. This will trigger a weakness in Blue and Brown so Red and Yellow will sieze the chance to attack. Because of North America, and Black isnt much of a threat, Green will attack North America. To sum up, the smaller contintents have an advantage because no one thinks its much of a thraet. Yellow has a chance to kill people as he borders more people. I think Yellow will win.

What about this: IF Yellow doesn't attack Red, Red can either setup an alliance with Yellow or at least whittle down Venezuela (attack enough times so you bring his army total down to 1-2 with out bringing your won total down below 5-6 and maintaining a numbers advantage). Doing this creates a buffer betwen you and South America. This will bring down Yellow's power dramatically since he can only place 5 armies total on the board. With out a counter to Brown in Africa, He may want to attack South America. But if he does this, Africa will be vulnerable to attack from Europe or Asia.

Oh, this is interesting. How about this. As you suggest, NA is bigger and better to control and easier to reinforce. Absolutely agree. Which is why I think when Yellow is going against Red, he has no chance. they simply are not in the same league. Red will wipe Yellow out. So from Yellow's point of view, he is going for the weaker opponent because he may have a chance to bit him. Red has all the incentives in the world to expand to SA. If SA starts attacking him, Red will have one aim in the game: kill Yellow at all costs! The benefits are great, he gets to remove an enemy, he gets to expand and get another continent, all without increasing borders.

Hence, Yellow should always treat Red like a wild bear that can suddenly wake up. Got to be careful.

This is a great debate to have, and I think it is very illuminating.  You bring up another really good point, certainly North America has a huge incentive and as such, this makes the dilemma that much tougher. 

Let me continue to be devil's advocate:
How will it be possible, given the scenario above, the Red will wipe out Yellow?  From a purely tactical standpoint if Red loses Central America to Yellow, As long as Yellow didn’t get destroyed and keeps at least 4 of his armies (I admit, this is one of the weaknesses of the plan, but for any plan to work, you need to get some dice rolls to go your way), Red won’t be able to mount much of a counter attack for while.  He just lost his 5 extra armies and there is some distance between Central America and the next viable threat.  Even if Red puts all of his armies in Ontario, he will have only 4 there and will require a fortify move to get them adjacent to Yellow.  So by the time he can attack, Yellow can bolster his force in Central America and Red will still be vulnerable in Alaska and Greenland. 

I would suspect that as soon as North America lost Central America and Red focused his attention south, opportunistic players will take advantage of the situation move in since red will need to fight on two fronts and this nearly guarantees that he won’t North America back.  Now Red really has a problem.

This is really what Yellow is attempting to do in this situation, cause the balance of power to shift so he doesn’t have to all the work.  A little negotiation, and Red will have Black and Blue all over him!  Remember, Black has no continent, so he has some incentive to move into North America.  And Yellow can keep on doin’ his thing. 

The map below shows what I am talking about.  Peru fortified his one army to Venezuela, we'll assume for this exercise that Yellow has four armies left in his victory over Central America (which means he did pretty well), and Red's response on the next turn could be to reinforce Ontario which had one in it already and placed all three of his reinforcements there for a total of 5.  This means that best case, Red will need to wait at least one turn before he can strike Yellow and will be a tempting target for Black and Blue. 

Risk Map: Tipping-Point-post-fort --- Open Copy in Risk Map Editor

I admit, this is one of the weaknesses of the plan, but for any plan to work, you need to get some dice rolls to go your way

I guess our debate is heating up but this is so much fun. Ok, here it is:

Risk is a game of probability. So yes, a bit of luck is useful, but you can't count on luck in your plans, because if you lose you will simply say I lost because of bad luck and to be honest you really cant say that.

 So by the time he can attack, Yellow can bolster his force in Central America and Red will still be vulnerable in Alaska and Greenland. 

It's critical to look at incentives. Ok, if Red is attacked by Yellow should he really worry about Blue or Black or Yellow himself. What incentive Blue has to attack NA when he can be threatened immediately by both Green and Black. Black himself is squeezed so badly that a march to NA (and the cost associated with it) simply doesn't make sense.

What you have done is that you have tilted the equation towards Yellow. While previously Red was getting 5 bonus versus Yellow's 2 bonus, now Red is getting nothing and Yellow is getting two. This sounds like the same argument I had when I said the Red can bankrupt Yellow.

However, I still say Red is in a better position to gain on Yellow that Yellow is to gain on Red. The war over central america is corrosive. They both know that if they carry on with this, they will both lose. So there is a limit as to how far they can go. If Yellow can get his back secured (Brazil) then he gets a huge advantage in the current situation to go towards Red. The problem is why should Brown do this. He will be  much better off going towards SA than any other, considering that if Red goes to SA it is Brown that comes under threat.

This is really what Yellow is attempting to do in this situation, cause the balance of power to shift so he doesn’t have to all the work.  A little negotiation, and Red will have Black and Blue all over him!  Remember, Black has no continent, so he has some incentive to move into North America.  And Yellow can keep on doin’ his thing. 

What if Red can make a treaty with Blue. Then he has really only one front with Yellow and Yellow needs to back off. If Black is going to attack Red, Blue can create another front for Black too.

The map below shows what I am talking about.  Peru fortified his one army to Venezuela, we'll assume for this exercise that Yellow has four armies left in his victory over Central America (which means he did pretty well), and Red's response on the next turn could be to reinforce Ontario which had one in it already and placed all three of his reinforcements there for a total of 5.  This means that best case, Red will need to wait at least one turn before he can strike Yellow and will be a tempting target for Black and Blue. 

All of this depends on Yellow being able to get such a good luck and everyone else following a gang-attack. No strategy will hold if everyone goes against you.

The only solution is to use diplomacy. Now when it comes to diplomacy, you are always in a better position if you have more to offer and more people to interact with (yes being at the centre of the world helps). Considering these parameters, Red has many more advantages than Yellow and all things being equal he should be able to leverage it. He should engage with others before its too late and when he finds himself in a war of attrition with Yellow. Like chess, he has to set the scene diplomatically and just wait for Yellow's attack so that he falls in the diplomatical trap. (and of course Red can say Yohhahahah in the background but let's ignore that for time being)

Consider this: what if Yellow attacked and this is what happened. Red will retaliate the next turn and will do so indefinitely. Brown's temptation increases every turn. Yellow has two fronts. No chance of survival!

I see your point and perhaps I need to reevaluate my thinking. I do have a few questions:
1. It seems South America then is in a tough bind in almost any game that has a strong Africa and North America, since it is much more desireable for them to invade South America because it is so small and does not increase the number of borders you have. So what is South America to do? What are the points that South America must make in order to remain a factor in the game?

2. I wonder if Black being squeezed means that in fact he should go to North America since the land there is more barren than else where. Black will see if Yellow attacks Red, so he will know if that is a good move and plus, Yellow can bargain with him prior to making the move. Black can't really expand elsewhere without major resistance. Granted, I wouldn't want to be in Black's shoes because his options don't look good.

3. The map you show above shows Brazil with only 5 armies, in my map he had 9. Where did they go? Also, it appears that Europe is weaker in the fronts than Brazil is (with 9 armies) so it seems that Brown has a good chance of taking Europe away from his 5 bonus armies whihc seem like more of a threat to me than Yellow's 2. Why wouldn't Brown go for that while also expanding that border? If Brown attacks Yellow, this actually invites Blue to move south since Brown's North African Front will be compromised. What do you think?

4. Any war Yellow gets into will be corrosive, there has been a build up all around him. Should he instead not attack out and just slowly grow with his 5 reinforcements? What if Yellow were to peck away at Brown's North Africa so that Brazil has 6-9 armies and North Africa has 1-5 armies? Attack North Africa enough to weaken it but not take it. This would again invite Blue downward and leave North Africa in a weakend state and allow Yellow to expand North knowing his border in Brazil is a little safer.

5. Finally, I still think Red will be in a tough spot IF Yellow is successful in dislodging Central America. Red will never be able to get enough reinforcements in hte short term and he is too far away to really make a stand. This allows Yellow to build on his success both in Brazil and Central America in subsequent turns. Just how is North America going to muster a good enough fight against Yellow short-term?

I understand that Yellow will be Red's target the rest of the game, but isn't he already? If Yellow doesn't move in, Red will be getting 5 armies extra to Yellow's 2 and eventually the odds will swing in Red's favor. The time to strike is now!

I look forward to your response, this is a great debate and I think we will all learn a great deal from it.

As for Blue attacking Brown, yes this is vulnerability as well. Brown should negotiate with Blue to see if he can secure the border before attacking Yellow. If not, then has to be careful or wait to see if Red also attacks Yellow as well.

Pecking is good as well, though it may make an enemy out of the African player. He may simply get annoyed and go for an all out invasion on Yellow.

Yes, I agree a more powerful Red is a big problem.  I still think the solution is in diplomacy. Yellow needs to get one front secured through other means than placing armies on the border. Striking now can easily backfire if the dice is not in your favour. Grant, do you think if Yellow doesn't attack now, he has no chance later? Do you think that it's worth risking his existence based on the dice he has to roll to get Central America? If he gets bad dice he will end up in the map shown above, which is a pretty weak position. What do you think?

Black is done for first of all, but him serving as a buffer for a few turns against green is crucial. It keeps Brown and Blue and Red safe and them able to attack elsewhere.

Yellow is trapped by two stronger powers and has to choose one direction and just go for it. Best interest to try and work with Blue. They can team up on one player both of their advantages. Blue would except because only has a little while till green comes a knockin. Blue needs to keep his ary size up yet still grow if he wants to keep Europe and fight green.

Inavading Red is good for both since they both keep their borders and have plenty of room to expand. Better for yellow because he stays away from Green and can eventually kick blue out.

Brown is better for  blue because he can greatly reduce his borders and conquer most of Africa and eliminate brown. This will give him enough power to fight green in a few turns. But must remember to keep his army large to make sure yellow and red don't take advantage of his expnasion.

Red must build up forces and take S.A. if he wants a shot at winnin. Treaty with black would be good for both.

The first thing I would ask is why is black set up that way.  It seems like he just has a bunch of armies scattered waiting to be conquered.  Also I'm gonna agree with Europa on this.  If yellow doesn't make a treaty with red (and if red is trtustworthy) then he really has to take central america or eventually be overun.  Yellow has 13 going up against 8, the odds are in his favor.  He can hold off red's attack or even convince red that he should leave (I once convinced my friend to run to japan after taking his central america spot and destroying his attacks on central).  If he keeps peace with brown he can potentially take North America.  If blue and brown form an alliance the game changes drastically, and an alliance with red is almost essential.  Black is basically a pointless buffer and really needs to reevaluate why he's playing this game.  Green can chill in Australia and make a move for the cards if an oppourtunity arises (also fight black if black attacks).